Together, all these failed projects provide overwhelming evidence that the strategy does not work in general. Which raises the obvious question: Why did it work so well for Windows in the late 1980s and ’90s?...
]]>[predicts that iPad market share will shrink to 50% by 2017]
Translation: We have no freakin’ clue what the market will be doing five years from now. So why not predict an outcome we like?
]]>“Microsoft Could Disrupt Apple’s Digital Bookstore Dreams”
“Microsoft Corp. will invest $300 million in a new subsidiary that combines the [Barnes & Noble]’s Nook digital reader
and college businesses.”
“The real problems with this are going to come for Apple and Amazon, specifically Apple’s (and Amazon’s) digital
bookstore dreams.”
Apple “dreams” of having a successful e-reader device and e-book store. Right?
]]>“Five Reasons the BlackBerry Isn’t Doomed”
“BB10 is a huge step forward for the BlackBerry ... This will provide the BlackBerry with a huge boost ...”
“With a new CEO, Thorsten Heins, at the helm, RIM will benefit from a refreshed corporate culture.”
“RIM will benefit from much better marketing ... [BlackBerry] marketing was not a corporate priority, which is one of the
many reasons why Apple was able to gain so much traction quickly with the iPhone.”
“The launch of new BB10-powered devices will be a huge difference ... As well, BB10 has the potential to give the
much-beleaguered PlayBook a shot in the arm ...”
Translation: BlackBerry is doomed.
]]>“The real truth about technology and IT”
“Michael Dell Interview: How Dell Is Being Reborn”
“A founder tends to put his or her company first, particularly if the firm bears his or her name. ... it tends to assure
company success in the long term.”
“[Dell] is currently on track to leapfrog its competitors.”
“Michael Dell was very clear that the tablet market, until Windows 8 ships, is an iPad market and that the smartphone segment
just isn’t very interesting financially.”
“[O]n smartphones [Dell]’ll look to add services, mostly business services, which can fill holes that the phone builders,
including Apple, aren’t good at. ... Apple isn’t that interested in business services ...”
“Building a True Legacy
I firmly believe that companies should be designed to be immortal. ... Dell’s future is bright largely due to the
power of a founder who can think strategically and doesn’t milk his company for personal gain. In the current environment
that is a unique and powerful advantage.”
Translation: Dell desperately needs to be reborn. Because selling a dizzying array of cheap Windows PCs from a website hasn’t been a good idea since the mid-1990s. And it’s the only successful idea their founder ever had.
]]>As these events unfold over the next twelve to eighteen months, at some point I bet Microsoft’s board will finally face the music and choose from among the following three paths for the company’s future:
Path A: ...
]]>First, there was no significant market by which to sell e-books.
Then, Amazon made the Kindle e-book store. Amazon’s pricing policy stipulated that Amazon got to set the price of the e-books. If any publisher didn’t like that, they were free to not sell their e-books on the Kindle store. Since Kindle was the only significant e-book game in town, the publishers caved, and let Amazon set book prices — though they really didn’t like how low Amazon often set them...
]]>“Not more than a couple short months ago I recommended to investors that they sell Apple. That call was early, I did not anticipate the euphoria that overwhelmed the stock for the past couple of months, but the premise for my recommendation has not changed and the subtle hints embedded in AT&T’s earnings report help to reveal the pressures I see at Apple going forward.”
Translation: I’m a sophisticated market analyst; I use phrases like “going forward,” so you know my recommendations are sound. Sometimes they’re “early,” which might cause you to lose a lot of money by following them — but hey, tough cookies. That’s the way the wind blows. I’m still right.
]]>“Apple=Sony: Brace For The Coming Post-Steve Jobs Decline”
“Apple will decline in the post Steve Jobs era. Here’s why. Sociologist Max Weber created a typology of
organizations in his 1947 book The Theory of Social and Economic Organization. ...”
“Weber: ‘Charisma can only be awakened and tested, it cannot be learned or taught.’”
“Apple’s momentum will carry it for 24-48 months. ... Apple will coast, and then decelerate.”
I think your article, George, will seem possibly sensible and knowledgeable for about 24-48 months.
]]>“I think [Apple is] ten years behind Microsoft in terms of security.”
Sure they’re not ten years ahead?
]]>“The Long Haul
The good news is that Microsoft has two things — money and patience — that could help it eventually succeed in mobile.
(And mobile is too important to the future of technology for Microsoft to sit it out.)”
Microsoft can’t lose in mobile because mobile is so important. And throwing huge amounts of money at it for years is bound to eventually work, even though it didn’t work for PlaysForSure, Zune, and many other Microsoft projects. Got it.
]]>“Apple: Here It Comes”
“What’s their P/E if [their operating margin] gets cut in half? You think it won’t? Oh yes it
will. This sort of operating margin always attracts competition. ... There is no way to prevent this from
happening folks, especially as you grow larger ...”
“Apple is now piling on its own demise (as a stock), as the rumors of a ‘mini Ipad’ are circulating. It’s
likely that if the device exists it will be soaked through and through with the blood of those too foolish to sell the stock —
even here, down 10% from recent highs. Why? Because this is a desperation move.”
“Apple formed its business case on single-source iron-fisted control over operating margin by having ‘the one’ that
it stirred up an iFanboi brigade to support, using that to drive bargains that were good for Apple but terrible for everyone else.
This works right up until someone else analyzes your business model and costs, then figures out how to build something at least as good
as what you have but 30% cheaper and gets that into the marketplace. Then the bubble-style valuation model you have built,
claiming ‘it’s not a bubble!’ through distortions in the ordinary course of business (e.g. hardware margins three times
that of historically-normal levels) is exposed and suddenly your stock doesn’t look so cheap any more.”
“Apple has no way out of this trap ...”
Look out, Apple! It’s a trap! It looks like you’re kicking ass, but it’s really a trap!
Say, Karl — didn’t you predict some sort of Apple decline back in September? And the September before that? But this time, I’m sure, you’ll be right. Can’t stay on a losing streak forever, they say.
]]>“APPLE GETS DOWNGRADED: BTIG Forecasts A Big Revenue Miss Later This Year
Hats off to BTIG’s Walter Piecyk for making a call that’s almost never worked out for anyone ever: He has downgraded Apple from
BUY to Neutral.”
Translation: Hats off to anyone who predicts bad news for Apple, regardless of how often it actually comes true.
]]>“Microsoft’s master plan to beat Apple and Google
Microsoft is staging a comeback — and, unlikely as this sounds, it’s one Apple and Google should be worried about.”
“[Apple’s and Google’s success] puts Microsoft in an unusual position. It’s the underdog.”
“Microsoft’s long game
Windows 8 probably won’t be an instant hit. ... That’s OK with Microsoft. It’s prepared to play the long
game, devoting years — and, often, billions of dollars — to cracking the markets it considers critical.”
“‘We’re a company that has extraordinary patience,’ says Microsoft’s [Craig] Beilinson.”
Translation: Microsoft patiently devoted years of effort and billions of dollars to PlaysForSure, Zune, Bing, Soapbox, Silverlight, Surface, Windows CE/Mobile, KIN, Windows Phone, Tablet PCs, Windows Slates, and Microsoft retail stores. And now — Microsoft will continue to do more of that. All it takes is extraordinary patience. Plus billions and billions and billions of dollars of Windows and Office profits.
]]>