Doomsday? Or Just Another Sunday

2007.02.04   prev     next

Did you hear the news? The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists has moved its “doomsday clock” a couple minutes closer to “midnight.” Stephen Hawking is concerned:

What, exactly, are they concerned about? Impending nuclear attack by a huge, new, aggressor nation in the same league as the late USSR? Global thermonuclear war and “nuclear winter,” wiping humanity off the face of the planet? I don’t think so. They’re concerned that a whole new generation is collectively yawning at their stupid doomsday clock, which inches ever-closer to midnight while the real probability of nuclear armageddon seems lower than ever since the invention of the H-bomb. They’re concerned that their clock and their cries of “peril!” are getting another coat of silly-paint with each passing year that sees humanity expand, advance, and thrive, and sees psychopathic dictators retreat further and further into tiny pockets of the world. And maybe they’re concerned that some of their thunder has been stolen recently by the geniuses who gave us “Threat Level Orange.” Now, I’d give 50-50 odds that a city or two somewhere in the world will get nuked while I’m still alive to watch it on CNN.  But a once-in-a-blue moon, terrorist disaster is one thing — “doomsday” is quite another. I’m personally more worried about balancing my budget or getting my kid into a good school.

Notice that they set the clock forward just two minutes. Why not fifteen or thirty, or an hour? Because they can’t: They’ve had their clock hovering close to midnight for decades now. So let’s ask ourselves: What might realistically happen that would cause the BoAS to move its clock back — and not just a little bit back, but way back; hours back? If you asked the BoAS they would probably say it would take some sort of global dismantling of all nuclear weapons. But is that realistic? What are the odds that any nuclear-armed nation will destroy its nukes, knowing that other nations might only pretend to destroy theirs? And even if a nation had absolute, foolproof assurance that other nations are destroying their nukes (and will never build new ones), what would that leave: magically guaranteed peace, or just a reversion to World War II-style combat? No doomsday clock needed for that, I suppose — as long as it isn’t “atomic” it must be OK. The massive loss of life at Normandy wasn’t atomic, so it’s OK. So was Auschwitz for that matter. Say, maybe stockpiled nukes aren’t such a terrible thing.  I’ve got mine, you’ve got yours — perhaps we don’t need to go to war after all... And hey, look at this at this swell iPod I just bought! Check out the great new track Beyoncé just cut. Peace can be fun too.

Nothing that’s plausibly likely to happen in this world is going to cause the BoAS to set their clock hours back. A ticking clock just minutes from midnight, with midnight representing massive annihilation of humanity, is what gives the appearance of gravity and importance to the BoAS as an organization.  They have absolutely no incentive to undo that. When clocks are functioning correctly, they don’t move backwards and they don’t pause. They move forward steadily and inexorably. The BoAS’s clock metaphor implies that nuclear doomsday is inevitable; that it’s just a matter of time. The clock metaphor would be better applied to human progress. We live in a world that gets steadily more prosperous, capable, and safe.  Like clockwork.

Hey, I think the Superbowl is on! Pass the chips.

Update 2008.05.17 — “psychotic” changed to “psychopathic”