Darel Rex Finley in 888

iPhone 2013 Score Card

2013.12.31   prev     next

TO hear some sourpuss pundits describe it today, you would think that iPhone was a brief success but now is being run out of the smartphone business. In actual fact, all of these expert malcontents are either deluded or disingenuous.

The Challenger

When iPhone first hit the market in mid-2007, smartphones were already a popular product, and had been for years. There were many models to choose from, and they were made essentially by four companies: Nokia, Palm, Motorola, and RIM.

Apple aimed to become a fifth major maker of smartphones, with the modest goal of selling 1% of all mobile phones by the end of calendar 2008 — an objective they exceeded by only about 30% (i.e. they got 1.3% of the market).

So now we’re at five years since the end of 2008. How are things going?

Failure

Palm is completely dead and gone.

RIM (now BlackBerry) seems to be in its death throes. RIM shares peaked soon after iPhone came out, and since have lost 95% of their value. Two quarters ago, BlackBerry reported a net loss of $84 million, then a quarter ago it was a billion, and in their most recent quarterly report? A loss of $4.4 billion. After replacing their co-founder co-CEOs with Thorsten Heins, they’ve now decided he wasn’t any good either, and have fired him, and borrowed a billion to keep the company going, while putting their three private jets up for sale, selling off five main-campus buildings (plus the land they’re on) to a local university, and laying off several thousand people. With key talent fleeing for Apple and elsewhere, it won’t be at all surprising if BlackBerry completely disappears by this time next year.

Motorola Mobility wasn’t doing well either, then was bought up by Google for the enormous price of over $12 billion — perhaps to prevent them from suing other Android phone makers over patents. Their latest phone, the Moto X, is flopping in the marketplace, and even after massive layoffs, they’re still bleeding maybe a billion dollars per year from Google.

Nokia, after selling off its headquarters and taking $1 billion from Microsoft to become exclusive maker of Windows Phone “Lumia” models, was doing so badly that major Nokia investors told them to “switch to another road.” Then — amid rumors that Nokia might try to make Lumias that run Android — Microsoft bought Nokia’s whole mobile phone division for over $7 billion. Other than preventing Lumias from running Android, it’s unclear what Microsoft’s owning Nokia’s mobile phone division is going to do for either Microsoft or Nokia.

In summary, the main smartphone companies from when Apple entered the market are all dead, dying, or have become ineffectual, overpriced, scaled-back subsidiaries of software companies that bought them for dubious reasons.

Success

In the meantime, iPhone has been a supersonic smash hit. By itself, iPhone makes more revenue than all of Microsoft’s products combined — at a time when Microsoft is raking in more revenue than it ever has. iPhone revenue seems like it can only go up, with recent, massive increases of sales in China, and the upcoming release of iPhone on China Mobile (the largest carrier in the world), and DoCoMo (Japan’s largest carrier).

And iPhone is only about half of Apple’s revenue.

And Apple is building spectacular new headquarters — while not selling off their old ones.

And 2013 Black Friday sales on mobile devices were 80% from Apple devices.

And Apple is distributing bigger dividends to its shareholders than any company in history — while its massive cash hoard continues to grow.

Current Competitors

The three most serious competitors to iPhone are, in ascending order of importance: LG, HTC, and Samsung.

LG is losing money, and is such a minor player compared to iPhone that it almost doesn’t make the list. HTC barely has been eking out a profit, but more recently has reported losses. And it’s still a minor player compared to iPhone.

Some people think that it doesn’t matter if these companies hover on the edge of unprofitability. But it does, because if they’re not making a profit, then sooner or later they’re headed for the same death/takeover graveyard as Palm, BlackBerry, Motorola, and Nokia.

iPhone’s only really strong competitor is Samsung. Though much celebrated by Apple naysayers, Samsung has significant deficiencies against iPhone. comScore estimated iPhone to be about 38% of the smartphone market, while Samsung is only 21% — slightly over half as much as iPhone. And Samsung’s prices and profit margins are substantially lower than iPhone’s. Samsung also faces serious, ongoing, legal problems as Apple sues them for patent violations and other IP issues.

But never mind all that: Samsung’s biggest problem is simply that it was able to get to the position of a strong number two only by taking contract-violating advantage of its close, component-making relationship with Apple. Whether or not Apple ever gets significant remedy in the courts for that — how likely is Apple to put itself in a position where Samsung can do that again? How likely is Apple to believe a Samsung promise not to abuse information access next time?

While Apple does continue to employ Samsung as a chip maker, I think it’s a pretty safe bet that no division of Samsung will ever again get access to Apple’s newest, most innovative designs. Which means that the Galaxy S3 wave of strong-number-two products represents the one and only time that Samsung gets to do that to Apple. Samsung’s future products — as hinted by the ho-hum S4 and the flopping Galaxy Gear smartwatch — will be sad also-rans compared to Apple’s.

Apple’s future is about as bright as could be.

The Braying Naysayers

None of this, of course, deterred Apple’s detractors these past several months, who talked as if Apple has already lost the game.

Henry Blodget of Business Insider said, “What Apple does not seem to understand, however, is the fate that almost all niche platform providers eventually succumb to — gradual loss of influence, power, and profitability, followed by irrelevance.” Then in another article, “Apple is getting its clock cleaned by Samsung, which is now by far the dominant smartphone maker in the world,” and, “Apple is being shortsighted and choosing to maintain its already fantastically high profit margins at the expense of market share.”

John Koetsier in VentureBeat declared that, “Android has won,” and Dylan Tweney, also of VentureBeat, chimed in with, “Android now accounts for more than 80 percent of smartphone sales, while iOS is down in the mid-teens. [Apple] is a company that is slowly but surely losing the final stages of its war for the phone industry.”

Neil Mawston of Strategy Analytics informed us that Android is winning because, “Consumers tend to follow the herd and they will generally be drawn toward the largest pools of users and away from the smaller pools over time.”

Ashraf Eassa in Seeking Alpha pronounced, “Apple, over the long haul, stands very little chance against the Samsung behemoth. ... [I]t’s clear that Samsung will brute-force its way into taking more and more marketshare from Apple ...”

Anti-Apple stalwart Rob Enderle analyzed, “The modern tablet market — created by Apple — has most recently been taken over by Google’s Android platform.”

And Eric Schmidt of Google asserted, “[Y]ou will switch from iPhone to Android and never switch back ... 80% of the world, in the latest surveys, agrees on Android.”

Anton Wahlman in The Street warned, “If these two new iPhone 5 models are all that Apple has, Google will then crush Apple in the coming months.”

And Larry Dignan in ZDNet revealed, “Android is doing to Apple what Microsoft did in PCs decades earlier.”

Where are these guys getting their data? Where else: Strategy Analytics, IDC, Gartner, and ABI Research, who use a simple, two-pronged approach to arrive at Apple-is-doomed conclusions:

  • Count anything that runs any version of Android as one unit of “market share,” regardless of price, profits, or whether its quality and feature-set are remotely competitive with Apple’s products.

  • Count every unit as “market share” the moment it leaves the factory, without regard to what eventually becomes of it, knowing that Apple keeps tight supply lines and every unit manufactured is an actual sale, whereas the rest of the industry has no such discipline.

And presto, you have Android “winning” with 80% market share.

That last quote from Dignan really explains the whole pouting pundit phenomenon: Besides, of course, wanting Apple to lose (or perhaps even being paid to say Apple is losing), most current industry pundits came of age in the late 1980s and ’90s, when Microsoft’s close copy of Apple’s main product was beating the pants off of Apple. So, naturally, the same thing has to be happening to Apple again today.

But back in the ’90s, the great bulk of the app ecosystem, with its “virtuous cycle,” was on Windows, working for Microsoft. In today’s mobile market, the great bulk of the app ecosystem is on Apple’s devices. The virtuous cycle is working for Apple.

 

Update 2014.04.11 — “Gartner” added

 

Update 2016.03.13 — So here we are, a little over two years later. What’s been happening?

Palm — Still dead. webOS, its main remnant, was sold to HP, who then sold it to LG. It never turned into any kind of significant competition to iPhone.

BlackBerry — By mid-2014, it hit literally 0% U.S. market share, then in early 2015 its CEO, John Chen, seriously recommended that legislators compel all app developers to port their apps to BlackBerry. (That did not happen.) That spring, it released the $2,300 “SecuTABLET,” which promptly received no market attention over the subsequent twelve months. And later that year, Chen suggested BlackBerry may abandon hardware altogether, becoming some sort of software/services outfit.

Motorola Mobility — After losing boatloads of money trying to do something productive with its Motorola acquisition, Google sold it off for almost $10 billion less than they paid for it. The buyer, Lenovo, saw its late-2014 quarterly profits mostly erased by near-$300 million mobile device losses from Motorola. No sign of any hit products on the horizon.

Nokia (mobile division) — In mid-2015, Microsoft wrote off its $7.2 billion purchase of Nokia’s mobile division as an $8.4 billion loss, announced 7,800 layoffs, and shut down Nokia’s Salo, Finland phone plant, killing up to 2,300 jobs. Windows Phone, a.k.a. Microsoft Lumia, continued to stagnate in ultra-sliver-of-the-market position, while fighting to maintain availability on major carriers.

LG — Continues to struggle with profitability, and produces nothing that could be realistically described as a relevant iPhone competitor. Its most interesting product, the Urbane smartwatch, had to be yanked from the market six days after release, due to hardware issues.

HTC — Now struggling to compete at any level (cheap to pricey) of the smartphone market. In mid-2015 HTC’s market valuation hit a ten-year low (less than its cash-on-hand), while it reported big losses and layoffs.

Samsung — Still the only serious (and only significantly profitable) iPhone competitor, Samsung over the past two years has seen an ugly end to its financial good times. Repeatedly issuing warnings of disappointing quarters (plus warning of a tough year ahead in 2016), Samsung retroactively rescinded a hundred of its own executives’ bonuses to punish them for the poor results. Freaked-out about iPhone’s success in its home country, Korea, Samsung pressured the government to pass laws that would make it impossible for Apple to compete there. In early fall of 2015, Samsung set its longest streak of monthly valuation losses since the early 1980s, and axed 10,000 persons at its headquarters, while its price-to-book-value ratio hit a thirteen-year low. It’s reportedly laying off 30% of its workforce, and forcing managers over fifty to “voluntarily” retire. In early 2016, rumors solidified into reality that Apple will be using only TSMC for its newest (A10) processor, resulting in Samsung entering an internal “state of emergency.” Samsung Pay (its answer to Apple Pay) has so far lost $17 million in its first year on the market. And while Apple got almost half of all new-device activations last holiday quarter, Samsung got less than a fifth.

While all of that was going on, Apple had the most profitable quarter in the history of companies, profits, and quarters, then the next year bested even that by 2%, with iPhone providing about two-thirds of those profits.

But believe it or not: Even after two years of this kind of news, certain professional commentators are still finding ways to spin it as bad for Apple. How? Simple: iPhone’s latest peak (holiday) quarter’s unit sales are scarcely larger than the year-ago quarter, the smallest rise (by far) in that product’s entire nine-year life — which means it’s peaking! (“Finally” peaking according to Darren Orf in Gizmodo.)

But look at a graph of iPhone unit sales (from Bare Figures, augmented with my arrows), and you see a very different picture:

The green arrow shows iPhone barely increasing from the year-ago quarter. But the red arrow reveals that if iPhone had continued to grow at exactly the same rate that it did from 2012 to 2013, it would be far lower than it is now! And the blue arrow indicates that it if had grown at the same average rate that it did from its initial release in 2007 to its peak quarter of 2013, it still would be much lower than it is today.

No matter how well Apple does, it seems it will always be possible to pluck a few facts out of the mix, present them in isolation, then say that Apple is in some kind of trouble. But to anyone with a clear view of the big picture, it should be pretty obvious by now: Apple’s handily winning, and the people who say it isn’t are just people who very much want to say that.

 

See also:
The Old-Fashioned Way
&
Apple Paves the Way For Apple
&
iPhone 2013 Score Card
&
Disremembering Microsoft
&
What Was Christensen Thinking?
&
Four Analysts
&
Remember the iPod Killers?
&
The Innovator’s Victory
&
Answering the Toughest Question About Disruption Theory
&
Predictive Value
&
It’s Not A Criticism, It’s A Fact

 

prev     next

 

 

Hear, hear

prev     next

Best Recent Articles

Method of Implementing A Secure Backdoor In Mobile Devices

When Starting A Game of Chicken With Apple, Expect To Lose

How I Clip My Cat’s Nails

Seasons By Temperature, Not Solstice

It’s Not A Criticism, It’s A Fact

Features (Regularly Updated)

A Memory of Gateway — news chronology of Apple’s ascendancy to the top of the technology mountain.

iPhone Party-Poopers Redux and Silly iPad Spoilsports — amusing litanies of industry pundits desperately hoping the iPhone and iPad will go away and die.

Embittered Anti-Apple Belligerents — general anger at Apple’s gi-normous success.

RSS FEED

My books

Now available on the iBookstore!

   

Links

Daring Fireball

The Loop

RoughlyDrafted

Macalope

Red Meat

Despair, Inc.

Real Solution #9 (Mambo Mania Mix) over stock nuke tests. (OK, somebody made them rip out the music — try this instead.)

Ernie & Bert In Casino

Great Explanation of Star Wars

Best commercials (IMO) from Superbowl 41, 43, 45, 46, and 47

Kirk & Spock get Closer

American football explained.

Sonos and Opalum — awesome sound stuff I saw at CEDIA.

TV: Better Call Saul; Homeland; Survivor; The Jinx; Breaking Bad; House of Cards; Inside Amy Schumer

God’s kitchen

Celebrity Death Beeper — news you can use.

Making things for the web.

My vote for best commercial ever. (But this one’s a close second, and I love this one too.)

Recent commercials I admire: KFC, Audi

Best reggae song I’ve discovered in quite a while: Virgin Islands Nice

Pinball Arcade: Unbelievably accurate simulation of classic pinball machines from the late ’70s through the ’90s, with new ones added periodically. Like MAME for pinball — maybe better.

d120 dice: You too (like me) can be the ultimate dice nerd.

WiFi problems? I didn’t know just how bad my WiFi was until I got eero.

Favorite local pad thai: Pho Asian Noodle on Lane Ave. Yes, that place; blame Taco Bell for the amenities. Use the lime, chopsticks, and sriracha. Yummm.

Um, could there something wrong with me if I like this? Or this?

This entire site as a zip file — last updated 2017.09.08

Previous articles

The Ultimate, Simple, Fair Tax

Compassion and Vision

When Starting A Game of Chicken With Apple, Expect To Lose

The Caveat

Superb Owl

NavStar

Basic Reproduction Number

iBook Price-Fixing Lawsuit Redux — Apple Won

Delusion Made By Google

Religion Is A Wall

It’s Not A Criticism, It’s A Fact

Michigan Wolverines 2014 Football Season In Review

Why There’s No MagSafe On the New Mac­Book

Sundar Pichai Says Devices Will Fade Away

The Question Every Ap­ple Naysayer Must An­swer

Apple’s Move To TSMC Is Fine For Apple, Bad For Samsung

Method of Implementing A Secure Backdoor In Mobile Devices

How I Clip My Cat’s Nails

Die Trying

Merger Hindsight

Human Life Decades

Fire and the Wheel — Not Good Examples of A Broken Patent System

Nobody Wants Public Transportation

Seasons By Temperature, Not Solstice

Ode To Coffee

Starting Over

FaceBook Messenger — Why I Don’t Use It

Happy Birthday, Anton Leeuwenhoek

Standard Deviation De­fined

Not Hypocrisy

Simple Guide To Pro­gress Bar Correctness

A Secure Backdoor Is Feasible

Don’t Blink

Predictive Value

Answering the Toughest Question About Disruption Theory

SSD TRIM Command In A Nutshell

The Enderle Grope

Aha! A New Way To Screw Apple

Champagne, By Any Other Maker

iOS Jailbreaking — A Perhaps-Biased Assessment

Embittered Anti-Apple Belligerents

Before 2001, After 2001

What A Difference Six Years Doesn’t Make

Stupefying New Year’s Stupidity

The Innovator’s Victory

The Cult of Free

Fitness — The Ultimate Transparency

Millions of Strange Dev­o­tees and Fanatics

Remember the iPod Killers?

Theory As Simulation

Four Analysts

What Was Christensen Thinking?

The Grass Is Always Greener — Viewing An­gle

Is Using Your Own Pat­ent Still Allowed?

The Upside-Down Tech Future

Motive of the Anti-Ap­ple Pundit

Cheating Like A Human

Disremembering Mi­cro­soft

Security-Through-Obscurity Redux — The Best of Both Worlds

iPhone 2013 Score Card

Dominant and Recessive Traits, Demystified

Yes, You Do Have To Be the Best

The United States of Texas

Vertical Disintegration

He’s No Jobs — Fire Him

A Players

McEnroe, Not Borg, Had Class

Conflict Fades Away

Four-Color Theorem A­nal­y­sis — Rules To Limit the Problem

The Unusual Mo­nop­o­list

Reasonable Projection

Five Times What They Paid For It

Bypassable Security Certificates Are Useless

I’d Give My Right Arm To Go To Mars

Free Advice About Apple’s iOS App Store Guidelines

Inciting Violence

One Platform

Understanding IDC’s Tablet Market Share Graph

I Vote Socialist Be­cause...

That Person

Product Naming — Google Is the Other Microsoft

Antecessor Hypotheticum

Apple Paves the Way For Apple

Why — A Poem

App Anger — the Supersized-Mastodon-In-the-Room That Marco Arment Doesn’t See

Apple’s Graphic Failure

Why Microsoft Copies Apple (and Google)

Coders Code, Bosses Boss

Droidfood For Thought

Investment Is Not A Sure Thing

Exercise is Two Thirds of Everything

Dan “Real Enderle” Ly­ons

Fairness

Ignoring the iPod touch

Manual Intervention Should Never Make A Computer Faster

Predictions ’13

Paperless

Zeroth — Why the Century Number Is One More Than the Year Number

Longer Than It Seems

Partners: Believe In Ap­ple

Gun Control: Best Ar­gu­ments

John C. Dvorak — Translation To English

Destructive Youth

Wiens’s Whine

Free Will — The Grand Equivocation

What Windows-vs.-Mac Actually Proved

A Tale of Two Logos

Microsoft’s Three Paths

Amazon Won’t Be A Big Winner In the DOJ’s Price-Fixing Suit

Infinite Sets, Infinite Authority

Strategy Analytics and Long Term Ac­count­a­bil­i­ty

The Third Stage of Computing

Why 1 Isn’t Prime, 2 Is Prime, and 2 Is the Only Even Prime

Readability BS

Lie Detection and Psy­chos

Liking

Steps

Microsoft’s Dim Pros­pects

Humanity — Just Barely

Hanke-Henry Calendar Won’t Be Adopted

Collatz Conjecture A­nal­y­sis (But No Proof; Sorry)

Rock-Solid iOS App Stability

Microsoft’s Uncreative Character

Microsoft’s Alternate Reality Bubble

Microsoft’s Three Ruts

Society’s Fascination With Mass Murder

PlaysForSure and Wikipedia — Revisionism At Its Finest

Procrastination

Patent Reform?

How Many Licks

Microsoft’s Incredible Run

Voting Socialist

Darwin Saves

The Size of Things In the Universe

The Self-Fulfilling Prophecy That Wasn’t

Fun

Nobody Was In Love With Windows

Apples To Apples — How Anti-Apple Pundits Shoot Themselves In the Foot

No Holds Barred

Betting Against Hu­man­i­ty

Apple’s Premium Features Are Free

Why So Many Computer Guys Hate Apple

3D TV With No Glasses and No Parallax/Focus Issues

Waves With Particle-Like Properties

Gridlock Is Just Fine

Sex Is A Fantasy

Major Player

Why the iPad Wannabes Will Definitely Flop

Predators and Parasites

Prison Is For Lotto Losers

The False Dichotomy

Wait and See — Windows-vs-Mac Will Repeat Itself

Dishonesty For the Greater Good

Barr Part 2

Enough Information

Zune Is For Apple Haters

Good Open, Bad Open

Beach Bodies — Who’s Really Shallow?

Upgrade? Maybe Not

Eliminating the Im­pos­si­ble

Selfish Desires

Farewell, Pirate Cachet

The Two Risk-Takers

Number of Companies — the Idiocy That Never Dies

Holding On To the Solution

Apple Religion

Long-Term Planning

What You Have To Give Up

The End of Elitism

Good and Evil

Life

How Religion Distorts Science

Laziness and Creativity

Sideloading and the Supersized-Mastodon-In-the-Room That Snell Doesn’t See

Long-Term Self-De­lu­sion

App Store Success Won’t Translate To Books, Movies, and Shows

Silly iPad Spoilsports

I Disagree

Five Rational Coun­ter­ar­gu­ments

Majority Report

Simply Unjust

Zooman Science

Reaganomics — Like A Diet — Works

Free R&D?

Apple’s On the Right Track

Mountains of Evidence

What We Do

Hope Conquers All

Humans Are Special — Just Not That Special

Life = Survival of the Fittest

Excuse Me, We’re Going To Build On Your Property

No Trademark iWorries

Knowing

Twisted Excuses

The Fall of Google

Real Painters

The Meaning of Kicking Ass

How To Really Stop Casual Movie Disc Ripping

The Solitary Path of the High-Talent Pro­gram­mer

Fixing, Not Preaching

Why Blackmail Is Still Illegal

Designers Cannot Do Anything Imaginable

Wise Dr. Drew

Rats In A Too-Small Cage

Coming To Reason

Everything Isn’t Moving To the Web

Pragmatics, Not Rights

Grey Zone

Methodologically Dogmatic

The Purpose of Lan­guage

The Punishment Defines the Crime

Two Many Cooks

Pragmatism

One Last Splurge

Making Money

What Heaven and Hell Are Really About

America — The Last Suburb

Hoarding

What the Cloud Isn’t For

Diminishing Returns

What You’re Seeing

What My Life Needs To Be

Taking An Early Re­tire­ment

Office Buildings

A, B, C, D, Pointless Relativity

Stephen Meyer and Michael Medved — Where Is ID Going?

If You Didn’t Vote — Complain Away

iPhone Party-Poopers Redux

What Free Will Is Really About

Spectacularly Well

Pointless Wrappers

PTED — The P Is Silent

Out of Sync

Stupid Stickers

Security Through Nor­mal­cy

The Case For Corporate Bonuses

Movie Copyrights Are Forever

Permitted By Whom?

Quantum Cognition and Other Hogwash

The Problem With Message Theory

Bell’s Boring Inequality and the Insanity of the Gaps

Paying the Rent At the 6 Park Avenue A­part­ments

Primary + Reviewer — An Alternative IT Plan For Corporations

Yes Yes Yes

Feelings

Hey Hey Whine Whine

Microsoft About Microsoft Visual Microsoft Studio Microsoft

Hidden Purple Tiger

Forest Fair Mall and the Second Lamborghini

Intelligent Design — The Straight Dope

Maxwell’s Demon — Three Real-World Ex­am­ples

Zealots

Entitlement BS

Agenderle

Mutations

Einstein’s Error — The Confusion of Laws With Their Effects

The Museum Is the Art

Polly Sooth the Air Rage

The Truth

The Darkness

Morality = STDs?

Fulfilling the Moral Du­ty To Disdain

MustWinForSure

Choice

Real Design

The Two Rules of Great Programming

Cynicism

The End of the Nerds

Poverty — Humanity’s Damage Control

Berners-Lee’s Rating System = Google

The Secret Anti-MP3 Trick In “Independent Women” and “You Sang To Me”

ID and the Large Had­ron Collider Scare

Not A Bluff

The Fall of Microsoft

Life Sucks When You’re Not Winning

Aware

The Old-Fashioned Way

The Old People Who Pop Into Existence

Theodicy — A Big Stack of Papers

The Designed, Cause-and-Effect Brain

Mosaics

IC Counterarguments

The Capitalist’s Imaginary Line

Education Isn’t Eve­ry­thing

I Don’t Know

Funny iPhone Party-Poopers

Avoiding Conflict At All Costs

Behavior and Free Will, Unconfused

“Reduced To” Ab­sur­dum

Suzie and Bubba Redneck — the Carriers of Intelligence

Everything You Need To Know About Haldane’s Dilemma

Darwin + Hitler = Ba­lo­ney

Meta-ware

Designed For Combat

Speed Racer R Us

Bold — Uh-huh

Conscious of Con­scious­ness

Future Perfect

Where Real and Yahoo Went Wrong

The Purpose of Surface

Eradicating Religion Won’t Eradicate War

Documentation Overkill

A Tale of Two Movies

The Changing Face of Sam Adams

Dinesh D’Souza On ID

Why Quintic (and Higher) Polynomials Have No Algebraic Solution

Translation of Paul Graham’s Footnote To Plain English

What Happened To Moore’s Law?

Goldston On ID

The End of Martial Law

The Two Faces of Ev­o­lu­tion

A Fine Rec­om­men­da­tion

Free Will and Population Statistics

Dennett/D’Souza Debate — D’Souza

Dennett/D’Souza Debate — Dennett

The Non-Euclidean Ge­om­e­try That Wasn’t There

Defective Attitude Towards Suburbia

The Twin Deficit Phan­toms

Sleep Sync and Vertical Hold

More FUD In Your Eye

The Myth of Rub­ber­neck­ing

Keeping Intelligent Design Honest

Failure of the Amiga — Not Just Mis­man­age­ment

Maxwell’s Silver Hammer = Be My Honey Do?

End Unsecured Debt

The Digits of Pi Cannot Be Sequentially Generated By A Computer Program

Faster Is Better

Goals Can’t Be Avoided

Propped-Up Products

Ignoring ID Won’t Work

The Crabs and the Bucket

Communism As A Side Effect of the Transition To Capitalism

Google and Wikipedia, Revisited

National Geographic’s Obesity BS

Cavemen

Theodicy Is For Losers

Seattle Redux

Quitting

Living Well

A Memory of Gateway

Is Apple’s Font Rendering Really Non-Pixel-Aware?

Humans Are Complexity, Not Choice

A Subtle Shift

Moralism — The Emperor’s New Success

Code Is Our Friend

The Edge of Religion

The Dark Side of Pixel-Aware Font Rendering

The Futility of DVD En­cryp­tion

ID Isn’t About Size or Speed

Blood-Curdling Screams

ID Venn Diagram

Rich and Good-Looking? Why Libertarianism Goes Nowhere

FUV — Fear, Uncertainty, and Vista

Malware Isn’t About Total Control

Howard = Second Com­ing?

Doomsday? Or Just Another Sunday

The Real Function of Wikipedia In A Google World

Objective-C Philosophy

Clarity From Cisco

2007 Macworld Keynote Prediction

FUZ — Fear, Uncertainty, and Zune

No Fear — The Most Important Thing About Intelligent Design

How About A Rational Theodicy

Napster and the Subscription Model

Intelligent Design — Introduction

The One Feature I Want To See In Apple’s Safari.